How to Decide

Annie Duke follows Thinking in Bets with a hands-on toolkit for making better choices. How to Decide breaks decision-making into concrete skills, teaching readers to separate the quality of a decision from the quality of its outcome, estimate probabilities for the things they are unsure about, and run a decision through structured exercises before committing. Duke covers resulting, hindsight bias, the premortem technique for imagining how a plan could fail, and kill criteria that set in advance the conditions under which you will quit. The book is written as a workbook, full of worksheets, checklists, and short illustrative scenarios, aimed at turning the probabilistic mindset into a process anyone can repeat.